NFL Playoffs – Wild-card Round: Preview

Home field advantage may not be crucial as history suggests

© - elviskennedy, Flickr-  Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers proved last season 
that home field advantage isn't everything in the playoffs

After seventeen weeks of football, the NFL playoff picture has finally been determined. Green Bay did not go undefeated.  Indianapolis did not go winless.  And Philadelphia will not win the Super Bowl, as many predicted before the start of the regular season.

The wild-card round is always very interesting.  Recent history suggested that home field advantage throughout the postseason is important, until the Packers won the Super Bowl last year with a 10-6 regular season record and a sixth seed in the NFC.  This year's wild-card teams are in the playoffs by merit, not by default, and could legitimately go against the trend, on the road, and cause upsets. 

Cincinnati (9-7) @ Houston (10-6)

Cincinnati have been a surprise team this season, courtesy of quarterback Andy Dalton developing a dynamic partnership with wide receiver A.J. Green, who was nominated to the Pro Bowl in his rookie season.  The Bengals struggled in a tough division against Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but losses by the New York Jets and Oakland Raiders in Week 17 allowed them to finish as sixth seed in the AFC and return to the playoffs for the first time since 2009.

You have to feel somewhat bad for Houston. They capitalised on a weak AFC South division due to the injured Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning and clinched the division in Week 14 with a 20-19 win in Cincinnati.  However, they suffered injuries to first and second string quarterbacks Matt Schaub and Matt Leinhart along the way, and could be without T.J Yates this weekend after he was sidelined by a shoulder injury in the season finale against Tennessee.  Defensive end J.J. Watt has been outstanding for the Texans defence this season, which has been an important factor.

© AJ Guel, Flickr – Arian Foster will be key to Houston's advancement in the postseason.

  

The Texans are second in the league both in overall defence and running the football, but have lost their last three games.  They will look to run the football against the Bengals with Arian Foster and Ben Tate, especially if they have veteran QB Jake Delhomme under center. Cincinnati will need to establish their own running game with Cedric Benson to take the pressure of Andy Dalton. With neither team carrying any real momentum into the playoffs, the Bengals might just be able to sneak this one on the road.

Prediction: Cincinnati 19 Houston 17

Detroit (10-6) @ New Orleans (13-3)

When was the last time a 13-3 record didn't earn a first-round bye? New Orleans have won eight games in a row, lead the NFL in total offence and are in Super Bowl form.  Quarterback Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's longstanding single season passing yards in Week 16 of the regular season and is having an MVP-calibre year.  More importantly, the Saints are undefeated at home this season.

© ohocheese, Flickr – can any road team win beat New Orleans in the Superdome right now?

Detroit, however, present an interesting match-up.  Having secured their first playoff berth since 1999, Matt Stafford has been outstanding in his first full season since being selected by the Lions as the number one NFL draft pick in 2009, and has led his side to two consecutive comeback wins when down by 20 and 24 points against Minnesota and Dallas respectively.  Calvin Johnson has emerged as the league's best wide receiver with 1,681 yards and 16 touchdowns in the regular season.

What separates the 2011 New Orleans Saints from previous years (including their 2009 Super Bowl win) is their more balanced offence, including a three-pronged rushing attack of Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles, who have all been productive since the loss of the injured Mark Ingram.  This makes New Orleans very difficult to stop, especially in the Superdome where they have scored 45 points in consecutive home games.  Having said that, anything can happen in the playoffs (see New Orleans' 2010 playoff loss to the 7-9 Seahawks) and Detroit are a strong passing side themselves. The Saints should go marching on, but Matt Stafford will prevent it from becoming a blow out.

Prediction: Detroit 28 New Orleans 38

Atlanta (10-6) & New York (9-7)

Atlanta are back in the playoffs for the third time in four years under head coach Mike Smith, who has lead the Falcons to four back-to-back winning records.  Matt Ryan is having the finest season of his young career, and Julio Jones is showing why GM Thomas Dimitroff traded several picks to select him fourth overall in the 2011 draft.  The Falcons managed to avoid the Saints for the second time in three weeks with a big win over Tampa Bay, and with Detroit losing a shootout to Green Bay in Week 17.

The Giants are enjoying a good season themselves, with Eli Manning having a Pro Bowl year and undrafted wide receiver Victor Cruz putting up 1,500 yards in his first full season. While it has been tight in the NFC East, New York beat Dallas twice in four weeks to win the division despite a late surge from Philadelphia.  Momentum could be on their side, which is a good thing as they will more than likely need to go on the road to establish a deep postseason run.

© Jason Poulton, Flickr – can Eli Manning lead the Giants to another Super Bowl?

These two teams are evenly poised.  They can both put up points in a hurry, but can easily fall behind against tough opposition.  Interestingly, Atlanta have only defeated one team with a winning record this season (Detroit) and are just 4-4 on the road.  The Falcons will need to use Michael Turner and play action against the Giants' weak secondary to give themselves a chance. But Eli Manning knows how to win in the playoffs, and Big Blue are coming off the back of a vital win against the Cowboys. Ahmad Bradshaw is giving New York more options out of the backfield since his return from injury. On paper, Atlanta is the stronger side, but anything is possible in the postseason.

Prediction: Atlanta 24 New York 20

Pittsburgh (12-4) @ Denver (8-8)

Critics of the playoff system would argue that Denver should not be the hosts of this match-up as Pittsburgh have a much stronger record, but Broncos fans will just be amazed that they are in the postseason at all. After a 1-4 start, Tim Tebow was named as starting quarterback and led Denver to seven wins in eight games, including several miracle fourth-quarter comebacks - the most memorable being a 16-13 overtime win against Chicago.

© Jeffrey Beall, Flickr – The Broncos will hope to ride Tebowmania to the Super Bowl.

The Pittsburgh Steelers know their way around the playoffs under head coach Mike Tomlin, who holds an impressive 5-2 postseason record, two AFC Championships and a Super Bowl win. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has battled injuries this season to lead the Steelers to the playoffs for the sixth time in his nine year career, and is using young wideouts Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown to great effect.

The Broncos have fallen flat in the last three games, however, and with the Steelers coming to town, it could be the end of Tebow Time this season. However, Denver have a habit of bursting into life in the fourth quarter, and if the Steelers are not out of sight by then, it could be very interesting.  Pittsburgh's defence has underperformed this season, but it should find a way to stop John Fox's run-first option.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 20 Denver 9